How accurate is SignalMNX?

95.4%

4 hr accuracy

91.9%

1 month accuracy

0.0584

Brier Score

Accuracy prior to resolution

Shows how accurate SignalMNX odds were at different points before they resolved.

4 Hrs

95.4%

12 Hrs

89.4%

1 Day

88.2%

1 Week

88.8%

1 Month

91.9%

Expected vs Actual

SignalMNX forecasts closely align with actual outcomes across all probability ranges.

Expected Percentage

Resolved Percentage

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Brier Score vs Volume

Lower is better. Brier scores show how accurate predictions really are — not just if they were correct, but how close the prediction was to being right.

<1k

1-5k

5-10k

10-25k

25-50k

50-100k

100-250k

250-500k

500k-1M

1M+

Resolution Composition

Shows the percentages of all markets that ended up resolving to "Yes" or "No".

Yes - 19.4%No - 80.6%

Methods

All metrics are calculated from resolved markets using price snapshots taken 1 month, 1 week, 1 day, 12 hours, and 4 hours before resolution. Accuracy reflects how often the final leading outcome matched reality, and Brier scores measure the average squared error of predictions.